Probability Approach a Survive of Passengers Estimation in an Aviation Incident Situation in an Airport Responsibility District

The theme of this dissertation is ” A probabilistic approach to assessing the passangers’ survival in aircraft accident near airport area”. The aim here is to develop a model of situations of fires on aircrafts at aviation accidents, probability of passengers’ (pax) survival and process of their evacuation. Examining the ability of pax survival in an aviation accident in the vicinity of an airport, it is necessary to take into account two major factors:

1. The time period the pax can be inside the airplane on fire. We shall consider this time available for bringing out all of pax. The limitation will be the moment of death of the first pax.
2. How quickly is it possible to evacuate all pax from the airplane using available modern facilities and technologies, airborne and ground emergency equipment, qualification of a crew and rescue personnel.

A mathematical method allowing to estimate dimensions for different scenarios of development of the events gives us an opportunity to evaluate and, what is important, compare the dynamics of development of critical terms inside the cabin of the burning airplane, the level of danger and probability of pax death in one or in another situation. Also to determine the most dangerous factors and airplane type from the point of view of fire safety. The analysis of aviation accidents’ investigation experience shows us that to a certain degree of fidelity, which is allowed in this research, it is possible to determine the quantitative value of the coefficient of critical conditions inside the cabin of an airplane on fire by means of both methods – experimental and calculation.

Calculating of the level of hazard of aviation accident a task gets up as evaluated by the level of impact on humans of the emergency situation stressing factors. The expert organizations, the insurance companies and the owners of airlines can run into such task. For the estimation of danger levels it is necessary to obtain the data of aviation accidents’ consequences, numbers of victims and economical damages.

Probability of survival in an aviation accident with a consequent fire is lower than in a situation of a fire on a civil building. Implementation of the model researched allows to estimate in numbers the size and scale of the hazard of a fire at an aviation accident which will be based on the probabilistic method that uses direct processing of statistical data. In an emergency situation for an aircraft the effective means of evacuation of pax important are the aircraft evacuation facilities, which in a great deal depend on the number of the equipped service and emergency exits, also on the time available for preparation of them for utilization, etc.