Methodology for Assessment of Economic and Environmental Losses in High Threat Objects

The Doctoral Thesis is dedicated to the development of methodology for assessing economic and environmental losses in high-risk objects. Effective assessment methods increase the safety levels and help prepare for potential accidents involving uncontrolled release of a large energy stock and predict the extent of potential loss in the event of an emergency.

As part of this paper, modelling of the hazards causing accidents and compiling global emergency statistics has been carried out. The author has developed a useful, innovative methodology for the calculation of environmental and economic losses, so that all stakeholders, without investing large time resources, can obtain reliable and reasonable results. The current risk assessment methods have been summarised in the paper, and their shortcomings and benefits have been evaluated. The correlation between the depreciation of objects and the increase in the frequency of emergency situations have been analysed in the paper, as well as the proposals for reducing risks during the operational life of the site have been developed and the proposed methodology for assessing losses caused by a potential accident has been offered.

The hazard assessment methodology proposed by the author is based on a probit function model that so far has been used very rarely in Latvia. As part of the Doctoral Thesis, the probit model constants have been tested using different scenarios for possible accidents in the calculation.

The methodology algorithm developed by the author is innovative and consists of 6 core blocks: identification of the risk scenario; parameters depending on the surroundings and external meteorological conditions of the high-risk object (HRO); possible risk scenarios and modelling of their probability; identification of negative environmental effects; calculation of probability using the probit model and the assessment of economic and environmental losses. The executing algorithm of the proposed core blocks is closely linked to the efficiency theory as a sequence of operations and the adoption of effective management decisions, based on the procedure carried out, where different types of data are collected.

Using the proposed methodology developed by the author, it is possible to establish the level of risk at the objects concerned and to foresee potential economic and environmental losses in the event of an accident. The proposed methodology can be used both at the design stage of the installation and in the existing high-risk objects. This paper provides a detailed example of the calculation that can be used as a sample.